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REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for crude oil prices as doubts grow OPEC+ will cut production enough to offset rising non-OPEC output and a deteriorating economic outlook. But many professional money managers are more optimistic about refined fuel prices, especially U.S. gasoline and diesel, expecting low inventories will ensure prices remain stronger than crude. By contrast, the position in fuels was 114 million barrels (51st percentile), with substantial positions in U.S. gasoline (64 million barrels) and U.S. diesel (33 million barrels). The surplus had swelled from +60 bcf (+2% or +0.23 standard deviations) at the start of October despite very low prices. Related columns:- U.S. crude oil bears risk reversal from crowded trade (November 20, 2023)- U.S. gasoline stocks add to crude oil turbulence (November 17, 2023)- U.S. oil prices slide as stocks accumulate at Cushing (November 16, 2023)- Oil traders turn bearish, daring OPEC⁺ to cut again (November 14, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Leonhard Foeger, Brent, Henry, John Kemp, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, ICE, U.S ., Funds, Henry Hub, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Vienna, Austria, OPEC, NYMEX, Saudi Arabia, Louisiana, Cushing

☆ US natgas prices drop 7% on record output, mild weather
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 25.1 cents, or 7.1%, to settle at $3.264 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Oct. 27. One bearish factor that has weighed on the futures market for most of this year has been lower spot or next-day prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana. The spot market has traded below front-month futures for 176 out of 212 trading days so far this year, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That premium could encourage some speculators to leave gas in storage for longer in hopes of higher prices later in the winter. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 101.5 bcfd this week to 109.2 bcfd next week.

Persons: El, Gelber, LSEG, Scott DiSavino, Bernadette Baum, Josie Kao Organizations: El Nino, Associates, U.S . Energy Information Administration, New York Mercantile Exchange, Henry, Thomson Locations: Louisiana, contango, U.S

Fund managers sold a total of 57 million barrels over latest two weeks after having purchased 398 million barrels over the previous 12 weeks since the end of June. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 3 million barrels over the week ended Oct. 3. Fund managers have sold gasoline in each of the latest three weeks by a total of 22 million barrels since Sept. 12. As a result, the net position has been cut to 48 million barrels (42nd percentile) from 71 million (77th percentile). Funds held a net long position of just 9 billion cubic feet (32nd percentile since 2010) down from a recent high of 743 billion cubic feet (48th percentile) on July 11.

Persons: Cushing, Brent, John Kemp, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, ICE, U.S, Henry Hub, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Funds, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, U.S, Israel, Chartbook, Brent, NYMEX, Louisiana, Pacific, United States

Funds continued to purchase NYMEX and ICE WTI (+16 million barrels), reflecting the intensifying squeeze on crude inventories around the delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma. WTI purchases have totalled 152 million barrels over the five most recent weeks and taken the net position to 286 million barrels (60th percentile for all weeks since 2013). But funds were net sellers of Brent in the most recent week (-22 million barrels) after buying in the three previous weeks (+63 million). Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsOn the product side, fund managers were significant sellers of U.S. gasoline (-13 million barrels) and European gas oil (-7 million), which was only partially offset by some small buying of U.S. diesel (+2 million). U.S. NATURAL GASInvestors became increasingly bearish on the outlook for U.S. gas prices despite progressive elimination of the large inventory surplus inherited from 2022.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Brent, Cushing, John Kemp, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, ICE Futures, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Funds, ICE, U.S ., U.S, Investors, Henry Hub, Climate, Nino, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, Cushing, Oklahoma, Brent, Louisiana, U.S, Pacific, Saudi

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 98 million barrels of futures and options based on crude over the seven days ending on Sept. 5. Short positions in NYMEX WTI had been reduced to just 30 million barrels on Sept. 5 from 136 million barrels on June 27. In the last 10 shorting cycles, shorts have fallen to an average of 24 million barrels. Following their repeated extension, the cuts are set to remove a total of 245 million barrels by the end of December if implemented in full. Related columns:- Hedge funds buy U.S. crude as stocks fall (September 4, 2023)- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices (August 31, 2023)- Prospect of strong El Niño weighs on U.S. gas prices (August 30, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Bing Guan, Brent, NYMEX WTI, Cushing, bullishness, John Kemp, Susan Fenton Organizations: Angeles Refinery, California Air Resources Board, OPEC ⁺, ICE, bearishness, Henry, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Angeles, California, Carson , California, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Brent, WTI, NYMEX, Chartbook, Russia, Saudi, Cushing, Oklahoma

☆ US LNG projects win higher processing fees as interest rates climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Curtis Williams | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Snow covered transfer lines are seen at the Dominion Cove Point Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Lusby, Maryland March 18, 2014. REUTERS/Gary Cameron/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHOUSTON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Long-term buyers of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) are willingly agreeing to higher liquefaction fees at newer export projects, according to analysts and developers familiar with the matter. The U.S. emerged in 2022 as the world's second largest LNG exporter on plentiful supplies of natural gas and relatively low processing costs per metric ton of LNG. But rising interest rates and higher construction costs have pushed up liquefaction fees, also known as tolling fees. Other developers are turning to increased equity investment in new projects to reduce the impact of higher interest rates on finance costs, said Poten's Feer.

Persons: Snow, Gary Cameron, Lyle Hanna, Jason Bennett, Baker Botts, Bennett, it's, Jason Feer, NextDecade, Feer, Poten's Feer, Curtis Williams, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Commonwealth LNG, LNG, U.S, Henry, Poten, Partners, Reuters, of Fossil Energy, Carbon Management, Cheniere Energy, Thomson Locations: Lusby , Maryland, U.S, Ukraine, Rio Grande, Houston

LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices have stalled as the wave of hedge fund buying that helped lift them throughout July and the first part of August has been replaced by gentle selling. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 30 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on Aug. 22. Nearly all the sales were in crude (-29 million barrels) with sales of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-16 million barrels) and Brent (-13 million barrels), according to position records filed with regulators and exchanges. There was a mix of profit-taking after the previous rally by liquidating existing bullish long positions (-18 million barrels) and speculative short sales (+11 million barrels) in anticipation of future price falls. There are also increasing indications the United States is relaxing sanctions on crude exports from Iran and Venezuela in exchange for diplomatic objectives and to keep a lid on oil prices.

Persons: Brent, John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: ICE, Henry, U.S . National Oceanic, Prediction Center, CPC, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, COVID, States, Iran, Venezuela, NYMEX, United States, Pacific, North America

Goldman Sachs believes the current downturn in the energy sector has created attractive opportunities for investors. The energy sector is down 9.4% in 2023, the largest decline among the 11 major S & P 500 sectors. Goldman attributes the energy sector's underperformance to a combination of macroeconomic conditions. Mild winter temperatures drove lower natural gas prices, and Russian oil supplies were s well higher-than-expected. Goldman also picked oil services company Halliburton as an underappreciated energy name.

Purchases over the three most recent weeks totalled 225 million barrels, among the largest increases over any three-week period in the last decade. As a result, fund managers held a combined position of 515 million barrels (34th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on April 11, up from just 289 million barrels (6th percentile) on March 21. But the pace of buying slackened noticeably last week as most of the short positions that existed in late March had been closed out. By April 11, total shorts had been reduced to just 125 million barrels (7th percentile) as bearish investors were squeezed out of the market. Fund short positions in NYMEX WTI were reduced to 24 million barrels, the lowest for almost six months, and down from 127 million barrels three weeks earlier.

The buying came as OPEC+ announced cuts totalling more than 1 million barrels per day on April 2 and after fund managers had already purchased 61 million barrels the previous week. Purchases centred on crude, in both Brent (+73 million barrels) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+60 million barrels), with small sales of European gas oil (-2 million) and U.S. diesel (-3 million) and no change in U.S. gasoline. CRUDE SQUEEZEWith its surprise announcement, OPEC+ successfully squeezed the shorts in crude petroleum, with bearish positions reduced to the lowest for 11 weeks since late January. Since March 21, funds have purchased a total of 174 million barrels of crude, the fastest rate since December 2019 and before that September 2017. Bearish short positions were cut by 113 million barrels while fund managers added 61 million barrels of new bullish long positions.

This marked a sharp turnaround after fund managers sold a total of 281 million barrels over the two preceding weeks, the fastest rate of selling for almost six years. Most of the buying came from the closure of previous bearish short positions (-48 million barrels) rather than initiation of new bullish longs (+13 million). Buying was concentrated in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+49 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+14 million), U.S. diesel (+5 million) and European gas oil (+1 million) with sales of Brent (-9 million). Short positions in NYMEX and ICE WTI were slashed (-51 million barrels) but no new bullish positions were established and in fact long positions were trimmed marginally (-2 million). U.S. GAS POSITIONSFund managers are becoming less bearish about the outlook for U.S. gas prices following the full re-opening of Freeport LNG’s export terminal.

☆ India keeps domestic gas prices on hold for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, March 31 (Reuters) - India will provisionally keep the price of locally produced gas from old fields at $8.57 per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu), the government said on Friday, while it considers a potential change to the pricing formula. Keeping gas prices at the current level could hit the earnings of producers such as government-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC) (ONGC.NS) and Oil India Ltd (OILI.NS). Over 80% of India's yearly gas output of 91 billion cubic metres comes from old fields owned by ONGC and Oil India. India currently links prices of locally produced gas from old fields to a formula tied to global benchmarks, including Henry Hub, Alberta gas, NBP and Russian gas. However, it added it had lowered the ceiling price of domestic natural gas from difficult fields for April-September to $12.12 per mmBtu from $12.46 per mmBtu.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 142 million barrels in the six most important contracts in the seven days ending on March 21, after selling 139 million barrels in the week to March 14. Fund managers have slashed their combined position to just 289 million barrels (6th percentile for all weeks since 2013) from 570 million (46th percentile) on March 7. The fund community liquidated 163 million barrels of previous bullish long positions in the two most recent weeks, while establishing 115 million barrels of new bearish short ones. The most recent week saw heavy sales across the board, including Brent (-63 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-48 million), U.S. gasoline (-15 million), U.S. diesel (-6 million) and European gas oil (-10 million). Anticipating the erosion of the surplus, funds have bought the equivalent of 774 billion cubic feet in the last seven weeks.

☆ Here's why hawkish Powell testimony might not derail the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today, all eyes will be on central bank chairman Jerome Powell as he begins two days of hearings on Capitol Hill. Chairman of the Federal Reserve nominee Jerome Powell testifies during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee November 28, 2017 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Fed policy aside, the stock market has marched higher to start the year, with the S&P 500 gaining about 6% over the last nine weeks. US stock futures rise early Tuesday, as investors await the two-day testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test.

☆ US natural gas prices plummet 13% as streak of mild winter weather set to continue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Natural gas prices have fallen 13% amid forecasts of more mild weather as winter winds down. Falling prices are a sign that the US needs to scale back gas production, some commentators say. Henry hub natural gas futures for April fell to $2.62 per million British thermal units, according to data from the CME Group, down 12.73% from its previous close of $3 per million BTUs. Natural gas prices have tanked 34% since the start of the year, with the latest drop spurred by warm weather forecasts for the coming weeks. The changes in supply-demand balance are a stark contrast from last year, when issues stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine spiked gas prices on the spot market.

☆ Coterra, Pioneer report strong fourth quarters — but the verdict is out on how investors will respond to higher spending this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

That move prompted us to reduce our exposure to any potential post-earnings downside by trimming Coterra and Pioneer late last week. Fourth-quarter production Coterra Energy's oil-and-gas production came in above the high end of the company's guidance and edged out analysts' estimates, too. Notably, Pioneer doesn't hedge its oil production, making its realized pricing closer to that of the underlying commodity. 2023 outlook Guidance provided by Coterra and Pioneer echoed that of Devon: Softer production but higher capital expenditures in 2023. But it beat on expectations for oil production, which should please investors given the high margins of crude production.

☆ Chesapeake Energy to reduce drilling amid natgas price slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Liz Hampton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas producer Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK.O) on Wednesday said it would pull back on drilling and completing wells this year as natural gas prices have crashed to a quarter of what they were last summer. Earlier this month, Comstock Resources Inc (CRK.N) said it would cut drilling rigs to seven from nine this year. Henry Hub natural gas futures on Wednesday briefly dipped below $2 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for the first time since September 2020, and were down from last year's $8 peak. Chesapeake, which previously announced plans to sell its oil position to focus on gas production, on Tuesday said it would sell oil assets in South Texas to chemical maker INEOS for $1.4 billion. Rival shale oil producer Diamondback Energy (FANG.O) on Wednesday said it was increasing its non-core asset sale target to at least $1 billion by the end of this year, up from $500 million previously.

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - U.S. gas prices have slumped close to their lowest level on record, after adjusting for inflation, as traders respond to signs of a persistent production surplus in the domestic market. Chartbook: U.S. gas prices and inventoriesThe U.S. gas market appears to have been running a persistent surplus since early September 2022, which has sent futures prices tumbling. The storage surplus marked a significant turn around from a deficit of -427 billion cubic feet (-13% or -1.52 standard deviations) on September 9. Gas prices are now sending the strongest possible signal for fuel-switching to blunt the accumulation of excess stocks. Related columns:- U.S. gas prices slump to maximise power burn (Reuters, February 10, 2023)- U.S. gas prices slump on production surplus (Reuters, January 12, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

As a result, research on business cycles moved in other directions, and policymakers increasingly aimed to eliminate cyclical instability altogether. Oil and gas cycles have been closely correlated with each other and with U.S. manufacturing activity. On average, troughs in oil prices occur within ±3 months of a turning point in U.S. manufacturing activity, while troughs in gas prices occur within ±4 months. Some softness in manufacturing activity as well as oil and gas prices should therefore be expected at this point. If the current slowdown proves to be a mid-cycle soft patch, gas and especially oil prices are likely to rise strongly later in 2023.

☆ Natural Gas: Fasten Your Seat Belts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Jinjoo Lee | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Last year, natural-gas prices were—by some measures—the most volatile since the U.S. shale boom began about a decade earlier. Despite the recent plunge in prices, it could be just a preview of coming attractions. Here is one way to quantify the wild swings: There were 18 days last year when the benchmark Henry Hub futures contract’s daily closing prices moved by more than 10%, the most since the Nymex natural-gas contract made its debut more than three decades ago, according to Eli Rubin , senior energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group. Historical volatility—measured as the standard deviation for the previous 20 days of daily changes in the Henry Hub—averaged 81.6% on an annualized percentage basis last year, well above the 10-year average of 48.6%.

A total of 95 cargoes carrying LNG departed last month from U.S. ports mainly bound for customers in Europe, which received 68% of exports. In December, U.S. LNG exports had increased to 7.22 million tonnes as producers made an effort to supply as much as possible to Europe. Clients there took 79% of total exports that month. Delays to restart the second-largest U.S. LNG plant, Freeport LNG, after a fire have also created limitations to export the superchilled gas since mid-2022. Freeport LNG on Tuesday asked U.S. regulators for approval to supply natural gas to one of the three idled units at its Texas plant, a milestone in efforts to restore production after a seven-month outage.

☆ Natural gas prices haven’t been this low since Russia went to war
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —Natural gas prices in Europe and the United States have tumbled to levels last seen before Russia sparked a global energy crisis by invading Ukraine. Even so, European gas prices are still historically high, and could rise again this year if demand from China picks up or supplies are disrupted. Wholesale prices were already shooting up in the months before the war as economies reopened from pandemic lockdowns. “It will take a bit [of time] for the fall in the wholesale prices of natural gas to [feed into] into the retail prices,” he said. That will keep Europe at a competitive disadvantage to the United States, where gas prices are about five times lower.

That outage dropped the United States behind top exporter Australia as global demand for the fuel boomed. In 2022, U.S. exports of natural gas as LNG rose 8% to 10.6 bcfd, just shy of Australia's 10.7 bcfd. The United States remained ahead of Qatar, which in third place shipped 10.5 bcfd, according to data provider Refinitiv. CROWN WITHIN SIGHTHowever, the loss of Freeport LNG's supply at mid-year took away the U.S. chance to take the crown as top exporter in 2022. In 2021, when prices in Asia were higher, just 35%, or about 3.3 bcfd, of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe.

☆ NextDecade increases LNG supply volume in deal with China's ENN
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SINGAPORE, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer NextDecade Corp (NEXT.O) announced it will increase the volume of LNG supplies in a sales and purchase agreement signed with China's ENN Natural Gas Co. Ltd. (600803.SS). Under the agreement, ENN via a wholly-owned subsidiary ENN LNG (Singapore) Pte Ltd, will now purchase 2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, up 0.5 mtpa from the original agreement, according to a statement by NextDecade dated Tuesday. Earlier in April, NextDecade announced it would supply 1.5 mtpa of LNG to a unit of China's ENN for a 20-year term. China was the world's top importer of LNG in 2021, shipping in 78.8 million tonnes of the chilled fuel that year. Of its total imports, nearly 9 million tonnes or 11% were from the United States, according to China's customs data.

Canada is in the midst of building a large terminal to export LNG, but its completion is two years away. Canadian gas production is on track to reach a record 18 bcfd in 2022 and 19 bcfd in 2023, according to energy consultancy Rystad Energy. Pipelines are also constrained in Canada due to swift production growth, particularly TC Energy Corp's (TRP.TO) NGTL pipeline system that ships gas around and out of western Canada. In August, gas prices in Alberta briefly turned negative because of bottlenecks stemming from NGTL maintenance. U.S. LNG exports are expected to reach 10.6 bcfd in 2022 and 12.3 bcfd in 2023, according to federal estimates.

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